Just prior to the start of the first televised debate in the Gavin Newsom recall election Wednesday evening, a shock poll showed the governor losing the first question ("Should Gavin Newsom be recalled?") by double digits.
The poll came from Survey USA and the San Diego Union Tribune, and was conducted among 1,100 Californians from Aug. 2 to Aug. 4. It found that 51% of respondents were in favor of recalling Newsom, while only 40% wanted to keep him in power. The previous Survey USA/San Diego Union-Tribune poll from May found 36% in favor of the recall with 47% opposed.
Unlike a recent UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Time poll that was weighted by whether the respondent was likely to vote in the Sept. 14 recall election, the Survey USA carried no such weight, which is even more alarming for the governor. The Berkeley/Los Angeles Time poll found double-digit opposition to the recall, but a dead heat when weighted by likelihood to vote. Polls have consistently shown a large enthusiasm gap, strongly suggesting Republicans are more likely to turn out.
The new poll's other shocking finding is a new leader on question two ("Which candidate should replace Newsom if he loses question one"): YouTuber Kevin Paffrath, the most high-profile Democrat on the bottom of the ballot.
Paffrath received 27% support, with conservative radio host Larry Elder, who led three separate polls released in recent weeks, at 23% support. The only other candidate with double-digit support was businessman John Cox (10%).
Former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer came in fourth with 5% support, while reality TV star Caitlyn Jenner and former Rep. Doug Ose tied for fifth, with 4% support.
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